Posted on: March 21, 2025
When Weather Forecasts Miss the Mark, Businesses Suffer
Weather forecasts shape critical business decisions every day, from planning stock levels to managing logistics and energy demand.
So, when a forecast is accurate, it helps businesses prepare and stay ahead. But when predictions miss the mark—like the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BoM) recent dry summer forecast that was followed by unexpected rains—the impact can be costly. Despite that blooper, the BoM claims its forecasts rank in the top four globally.
For Australian farmers, a hot, dry summer outlook led to early livestock sales and reduced crop planting, only for above-average rainfall to arrive instead.
Logistics firms saw routes disrupted by severe weather that wasn’t predicted in long-range forecasts. This raises an important question: are forecasting models flawed, or is climate change making the weather more unpredictable?
What Went Wrong? The Challenge of Modern Forecasting
The science of weather forecasting has improved significantly in recent decades, but it still relies on historical patterns and models.
The problem?
Climate change is making those patterns less reliable.
The BoM’s dry summer prediction wasn’t just a random mistake—it was based on previous El Niño events, which typically deliver drought conditions. However, rapid oceanic and atmospheric shifts outpaced these models, leading to wetter conditions than expected. Other forecasting failures have included missed storm warnings and cyclone predictions that failed to reflect real-time conditions.
Another issue is that the BoM is behind in maintaining and updating its infrastructure, which hampers its ability to forecast accurately.
Weather models struggle with these shifts because climate change is increasing volatility. Unusual weather patterns, such as heatwaves in winter or floods in drought-prone regions, mean past data isn’t always a good predictor of future conditions. Last month, a snow flurry was predicted for higher reaches of the Victorian Alps.
And, to throw a spanner in the works, weather and models are different, as this Australian National University expert explains.
SMEs like yours relying on long-range forecasts alone risk costly miscalculations.
The Business Impact of Forecasting Failures
Forecasting errors affect farmers and a diverse range of industries hard.
Agriculture Farmers base planting and livestock decisions on seasonal forecasts. When the weather doesn’t match expectations, they can face significant losses
Logistics and supply chains Unexpected weather events disrupt transport routes, causing delays and increased costs
Energy sector Misjudging demand for heating or cooling can lead to grid instability, price fluctuations, and wasted resources
Construction and tourism Delays from poor weather forecasting mean lost revenue, project overruns, and last-minute cancellations
For SMEs in these sectors, relying too heavily on a single forecast can be a gamble.
Planning for Uncertainty: A Smarter Approach
Rather than expecting perfect forecasts, businesses need to plan for uncertainty. The best approach? Use forecasting as a guide—not a guarantee—and build flexibility into operations.
- Diversify forecasting sources: Instead of relying solely on BoM, aim to compare multiple global meteorological models and real-time climate tracking
- Leverage historical trends: These can help you refine long-term strategies, but as we’ve said above, they should be your sole guide
- Shift from prediction to preparation: Plan for multiple weather scenarios rather than banking on a single outlook. Contingency strategies can prevent costly disruptions
- Use short-term updates: While seasonal forecasts offer a broad picture, next-three-day, weekly, and daily updates offer more accurate, real-time adjustments
- Use AI-powered forecasting tools: Many affordable business platforms now integrate AI-driven weather insights, helping SMEs make data-informed decisions without needing specialist expertise
Taking a proactive approach reduces your exposure to risk, helping your SME be resilient no matter what the weather brings
Protecting Your Business from Weather Risks
No forecast is foolproof, but that doesn’t mean your business has to take unnecessary risks. We can work with you to assess your exposure to weather-related disruptions and structure the right insurance solutions to keep your operations secure.
From property insurance cover to specialised policies for weather-sensitive industries, we can tailor protections that fit your specific needs—so when the forecast fails, your business doesn’t have to.
Reach out today to discuss the best strategy for managing climate risks.
